Application of a fuzzy cognitive map for the simulation of the Russia-Ukraine war
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31558/2786-9482.2023.1.1Keywords:
Russia-Ukraine war, fuzzy cognitive map, scenario modelling, nuclear threat, ranking of influencing factors, pair effects.Abstract
The Russia-Ukraine war is an actual object of modelling by techniques of operations research and system analysis. The most important aspect is modelling the threat of nuclear weapon attack, which is related to the potential ability of the Russian Federation. The Russia-Ukraine war is considered as a dynamic system, whose variables are factors affecting the losses of the Russian army and the threat of nuclear weapons attack. A fuzzy cognitive map is used for modelling. A fuzzy cognitive map is a directed graph, the vertices of which are variables of the model, and the weights of the arcs are the forces of positive and negative effects of variables on each other. The factors affecting the losses of the Russian army and the threat of a nuclear strike are selected as follows: resistance of the Ukrainian army, support of Ukraine with weapons, economic sanctions against Russia, opposition of the Russian government and its instinct for self-preservation. The forces of influence of factors on each other and on the possibility of using nuclear weapons are evaluated by experts with the help of fuzzy terms to which numerical quantities correspond. A genetic algorithm is used for tuning the fuzzy cognitive map. The genetic algorithm finds out the forces of influence of factors that minimize the distance between the simulation results and expert assessments. The obtained fuzzy cognitive map is used for scenario modelling of the Russia-Ukraine war according to the what-if analysis and for ranking the factors according to the degree of their influence on the level of nuclear threat. This work shows that fuzzy cognitive maps are an analogue of differential equations, which are traditionally used to model the loss dynamics in military conflicts. The fuzzy cognitive map advantage lies in the possibility of using expert information to account for interrelated factors affecting the loss dynamics and the nuclear threat level. A promising direction for further research is the extension of the proposed model for proceeding with the detailed classification of factors influencing the progress of the Russia-Ukraine war.
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